I have not written you as often as I could have wished but you know that it is those on whom we think we can best rely that we are most apt to neglect. I have spoken to Mr Whittlesy of the committee of claims with respect to Mr Gilbert business and am informed that ^it^ will soon be acted upon & that it will succeed. The proceedings of your caucus reached us yesterday & carried dismay into the Adams camp. The administration had given up every <thing> like confidence in my defeat but they were not without hopes; but such a result they had not dreamt of. Between us you know there would be no <one of> propriety to make strong declarations upon the subject if I did not believe them. It is therefore in perfect sincerity that I assure you that there is not the remotest doubt of Jacksons success. Between us we could not prevent it if we would. If it was certainly known that Nyork would go in a body agt. him the moral influence of that fact might change the result, but when the election takes place you will see that he will have the requisite number without our aid. On the other hand Mr Clay & his friends admit that it all depends upon Nyork where Storrs Taylor Marvin & Martindale & Charles King made them think they have three fourths of the people with them. Two votes, (possibly three) in Maryland will be all the votes Mr Adams can get south of New Jersey. Louisiana is the only state with respect to which question can be made & there Jackson will without a doubt succeed. The changes in the west have been almost miraculous. Missouri Tennessee two out of the three districts in Kentucky, Mississippi Alabama & Illinois are certain. Ohio & Indiana are the states in which the battle in the west will be fought. Of Indiana there is but little doubt & in Ohio the chances are nearly equal ^but^ Mr Adams the <bet>.

The time has at last arrived where Nyork politics are understood here & to the South of us. The proce events of the winter at Albany have opened the eyes of all to the true state of things in the State & the Bucktail Standard as it is called is about universally regarded as the true one & Respected by all.

Shew this to our friend Wright

Let me hear from you & believe me to be